Super Tuesday-- The Analysis

Well, we walked away yesterday with no more a presumptive Republican nominee than we had on Monday.

Huckabee had a good showing in Southern states. Romney failed to capture the delegates he needed to really declare a lead but even McCain didn't capture enough to claim the title of presumptive nominee.

In states where McCain won, polling is showing that conservative, pro-family, pro-life voters weren't jumping on his bandwagon. I believe that these voters likely voted for Huckabee with some going to Romney but I haven't finished digging through published polling reports.

If, and this is a big if, all three candidates stick it out to August, we will find a three way battle on our hands. However, if Huckabee bows out at some point, I predict that a vast majority of Huckabee supporters will throw their hat into Romney's ring. Pro-life, pro-family voters would have less of a problem with a Mormon in the White House than with someone who did not share their values. The press has repeatedly focused on the issue of whether these voters could support a Mormon but the press has it wrong. Pro-life, pro-family voters could support a Mormon if he shares their values. After Huckabee, Romney comes closest to traditional pro-life, pro-family beliefs consistent with conservative Catholics and Evangelical Christians.

As I've mentioned in a previous post, does Romney's late pro-life conversion bother me? A little, but as with all converts in the pro-life movement, there had to be a defining moment for that conversion to occur. Romney says that he has had that moment and he has given no cause since to doubt his sincerity.

McCain's big problems with pro-life, pro-family voters have been embryonic stem cell research, which he still supports, and campaign finance reform, which hindered free speech rights. This bloc of voters takes both of these issues very seriously so it will be difficult for McCain to pull votes from this group. However, that said, if McCain were the nominee, many of these voters would vote for him over Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. McCain has promised to nominate judges who are in the mold of Scalia, Thomas and Alito. Pro-life, pro-family voters would take him at his word.

Obama pretty much cleaned Clinton's clock in some states. These two candidates are still so close in the number of delgates that neither can claim to be the presumptive nominee.

NOW's sniping at Obama aside, the Clinton campaign is running short of major supporters. This does not help her campaign.